Start getting ready for President Trump
/Earlier today Hillary Clinton received the Democratic Presidential nomination. Trump isn’t so much going to win the Presidency so much as Hillary Rodham Clinton will lose it. Even putting aside the current polling showing Clinton now lagging Trump, I’m no Trump supporter; I’m just tuning into ‘RealityFM’.
So let’s un-pack this.
In previous elections cycles, Democrat; while wildly arguing through the nomination process; invariably fall in line behind the final nominee. That is how Obama won in 2008. Clinton was a strong contender, but eventually supported Obama as did the majority of Clinton supporters and other Democrats. Not in 2016. There are; at least; two key reasons for this: 1) the political revolution that Bernie Sanders started and 2) Clinton’s reputation that has moved way past tarnished and into 3rd-world-despot-esk.
A key factor was the recent WikiLeaks dump of the hacked Democratic National Conventions (DNC) emails that proves the DNC actively undermined the Sanders candidacy and earlier WikiLeaks pointing to Clinton’s dodgy activity as Secretary of State and her Clinton Foundation.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/07/25/twelve-dnc-emails-released-by-wikileaks-that-stand-out/
While many Americans are venting at an alleged Russian/Putin hand in the WikiLeaks affair; others are saying things like: “so what; why is it taking WikiLeaks and Russia to expose our own corrupt politicians and broken system”? So there are a bunch of Sanders supporters who see Wikileaks as proving what they always suspected of Clinton and; unlike 2008; just won’t vote for her. So does that mean they’ll vote for Trump? Not likely.
So what of that political revolution Sanders started? Enter the US Green Party (yes; believe it or not, they do have one) and a new name to the stage; at least to me here in New Zealand; Jill Stein; the Green Party's presumptive nominee for President. While even Bernie Sanders himself fell on his sword and declared his support for Clinton at the DNC; thousands of Sanders supporters simply aren’t buying it. (Which incidentally proves it was never about Bernie the man, but rather the political revolution). And neither is Jill Stein and the US Green Party. They are still running and picking up the revolution-baton that Sanders has dropped. And, it seems, thousands of those original Sanders supporters are now flocking to the Green banner.
So; Trump will not so much win the US Presidential election as the Democrats will lose it because the centre-left vote will be split three ways something like: the Democrats (Clinton) with around 35%; the Greens (Stein) with about 15% and the Libertarians (looking to be former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson) with 5%. With those number; Trump only needs 45% to win the Presidency; possibly only 40% of voters. (which will be less than previous years because there will be a bunch of Democrats that won’t vote for Clinton so won’t vote at all).
So; like I said; what does a Donald Trump Presidency mean for the rest of the planet? Start engaging seriously with that question.